Recovery, resilience and transformation

The COVID-19 pandemic has generated significant turning points, with shifts across almost all societies and economies. It has exposed tensions and weaknesses in the global systems – but also shifted policy and behaviour in ways that open new possibilities for the future.

There will be different recovery objectives at the front of people’s minds – the recovery of economic strength, the recovery of a sense of security and the recovery of a sense of well-being. These different objectives form the driving forces behind our new scenarios. People will be seeking all of these to some extent – wealth, security and health. But what they choose to prioritise may differ.

Over time, attention will turn from short-term recovery to long-term resilience, the capacity to survive, adapt and grow in the face of change and uncertainty. The current crisis may provide a window of opportunity for the deep changes distinct to transformative resilience – the ability to transition deeply to thrive in new circumstances.


The full report

Three new scenarios extend across the century and consider the pace of energy transitions and the impact on the climate.

Summary report

Download a summary of our new long-horizon scenarios.

The videos

Watch more about our new energy transformation scenarios.


Explore the Energy Transformation Scenarios infographic.

The underlying data

Explore the data behind the energy landscapes in our new scenarios.


What are Shell Scenarios?

Shell has been a pioneer in developing scenarios to explore the future and deepen its strategic thinking for almost 50 years. 

Rethinking the 2020s

COVID-19 is changing the world in significant ways. The Shell Scenarios team has explored the potential impact of the crisis.

Our climate target

In tackling climate change, the focus is increasingly on limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5° Celsius. Shell supports this ambition.


Scenario Sketches

The Scenarios team provides ‘big picture’ insights about how the world is changing – politically, economically, technologically and socially - into sketches to help think about the future.

Earlier scenarios

Shell Scenarios since the 1970s have helped us understand how the world and its energy system could evolve in decades to come.